September 22, 2026
AI now assesses business bankruptcy risk: FTS combines forecasting and language models into EFA
Predictive models assess the probability of bankruptcy, language models analyze the reasons for non-payment, and a human specialist verifies the conclusions.
Bankruptcy proceedings in Russia take 1265 days on average, and creditors receive nothing from half of debtors.
On September 21, at the Moscow Financial Forum, Konstantin Chekmyshev, deputy head of the Federal Tax Service, presented Unified Financial Analysis (EFA). The system calculates which option will yield more for a creditor: recovery, bankruptcy, restructuring, or allowing the debtor to continue operating.
EFA does not make the choice; it brings together figures for all four options in one place. “Bankruptcy is already surgery, when amputation is the only option,” Chekmyshev said at the forum.
Two engines inside. Predictive models calculate the probability of bankruptcy, current value, and liquidation value. Language models analyze why the debtor stopped paying and write crisis-exit scenarios.
EFA produces four documents: a solvency and risk statement, a breakdown of calculations, an analytical report, and restructuring scenarios with a forecast. The system uses tax data and external sources that show the debtor's assets and liabilities, transactions, affiliations, and signs of asset stripping.
Chekmyshev says all creditors must have access to this information, otherwise the tool will not work.
Four years ago. In June 2022, Chekmyshev presented SKUAD with the same digital profile of a debtor: assets, liabilities, connections, and transactions. It had no language models; the system selected a ready-made option for the creditor from a set.
According to Federal Tax Service figures, third- and fourth-priority creditors recover 5% of their claims in bankruptcy, while the budget recovers 19%. The average recovery rate across all procedures is 18,9%, and solvency is restored after restructuring in 0,25% of cases.
Over three years, 5000 companies received debt restructuring. Their revenue totaled RUB 19 trillion, they paid RUB 3 trillion in taxes, and installment plans are fulfilled at 96%.
A law has already been written for EFA scenarios: 253-FZ of July 26, 2026 introduces debt restructuring for legal entities as a separate rehabilitation procedure with a repayment plan supervised by a turnaround manager.
The main provisions of 253-FZ on restructuring for legal entities will take effect on July 27, 2027.
